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An overview of new technologies of the future and their raw material requirements:
DERA 2021 vs. 2026
with ScienceOS: “… answers may not always be correct ...”
Analysis based on the original publications:
- ‘Raw Materials for Future Technologies 2026: Commissioned Study’, DERA Raw Materials Information ; 67
- “Raw Materials for Future Technologies 2021: Commissioned Study”, DERA Raw Materials Information ; 50
In 2026, eight technology groups were added, whilst six – or seven, according to a literal interpretation of the diagram – of the 2021 categories no longer appear separately. Among the raw materials, lanthanum and yttrium were removed; no new raw materials were added. The HSE/SSE group (=REE) was simply given a different name.
Technologies under renewed scrutiny and their raw materials
The eight technologies newly included in 2026 are assigned the following raw materials or groups of raw materials in the study:
| New technology | Associated raw materials |
|---|---|
| Printed and flexible electronics | Silver, copper and carbon. Silver dominates in printed RFID antennas and biopotential electrodes; copper is regarded as a more cost-effective alternative, whilst carbon is seen as a functional or substitute material. |
| Processors for data centres | Copper, nickel, chromium, silicon, tin, barium, titanium, gold and silver; tantalum, cobalt, ruthenium, palladium, hafnium, zirconium and neon |
| Satellites | Aluminium, copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, lead, gold, titanium, gallium, germanium and iron. In the case of larger satellites, carbon-fibre-reinforced plastic is also used as a key material. |
| Photovoltaics | For the quantitative demand calculation: silver, aluminium, copper, silicon, tin and tellurium. Depending on the PV technology, the following may also be present: boron, phosphorus, cadmium, indium, gallium, selenium, titanium, zinc, lead, gold and carbon. & |
| High-performance lithium-ion storage systems for stationary applications | Lithium, graphite, manganese, cobalt and nickel. For the 2045 calculation, lithium, manganese and graphite are taken into account in particular; for cobalt and nickel, the table shows no demand in any of the scenarios. |
| Heat pumps / air conditioning systems | Iron or steel, copper, aluminium, zinc, chromium, nickel, molybdenum, silver, gold, palladium, silicon, boron, neodymium, dysprosium, praseodymium and terbium. In addition, fluorspar and fluorine-containing refrigerants, lubricating oils, elastomers and other polymers are mentioned.& |
| Small Modular Reactors (SMR) | For plant and buildings: iron, chromium, nickel, copper, zinc, manganese and niobium, as well as concrete. For fuel elements, additionally molybdenum, silver, indium, cadmium, hafnium, boron, gadolinium, zirconium, tin and uranium. |
| Laser fusion and magnetic fusion | For laser fusion: neodymium, ytterbium, quartz glass, sapphire, beryllium, tungsten, lead and stainless steel; additionally, deuterium and tritium as fuel. For magnetic fusion: niobium-tin, niobium-titanium, beryllium, tungsten, copper, lithium, lead, stainless steel, molybdenum, rhodium, quartz glass, sapphire and barium; here too, deuterium and tritium are used as fusion fuels. |
Raw materials required for the newly considered technologies
Particularly critical raw materials from the eight new technology sectors
| Raw material or group of raw materials | Related new technologies | Classification |
|---|---|---|
| Lithium | Stationary lithium-ion storage | DERA expects particularly strong demand for lithium by 2045 driven by storage technologies. |
| Graphite | Stationary lithium-ion storage | According to DERA, graphite is one of the raw materials for which technology-driven demand could significantly exceed current production levels. |
| Cobalt | Stationary lithium-ion storage systems | DERA highlights a high future demand, particularly for battery storage systems. |
| Nickel | Stationary lithium-ion storage systems, processors, heat pumps, small modular reactors | Nickel was added to the list of strategic raw materials in 2023. |
| Copper | Printed electronics, processors, satellites, photovoltaics, heat pumps, small modular reactors, magnetic fusion | Included as a strategic raw material in 2023.& |
| Aluminium / bauxite | Satellites, photovoltaics, heat pumps, small modular reactors | Gallium as a by-product: https://www.eib.org/de/press/all/2026-011-eib-backs-europe-s-first-gallium-production-investment-with-eur90-million-financing-to-metlen-in-greece |
| Silicon | Processors, photovoltaics, heat pumps | |
| Gallium | Processors, satellites, photovoltaics | Critical raw material with a high supply risk; DERA specifically mentions gallium in connection with semiconductors and photovoltaics. |
| Germanium | Processors, satellites | In certain scenarios, DERA expects demand for satellites and fibre-optic cables to exceed current global production.& |
| Tantalum | Processors, printed electronics | Tantalum is mentioned in connection with microelectronic capacitors and superalloys. |
| Platinum group metals | Processors, heat pumps, lasers and magnetic fusion | Platinum for data centres and hydrogen electrolysis, and ruthenium for data centres |
| Rare-earth metals | Heat pumps and air-conditioning systems, satellites, magnetic fusion | DERA lists light and heavy rare-earth elements in connection with heat pumps and air-conditioning systems. |
| Boron / borates | Heat pumps, small modular reactors, photovoltaics | Boron is included on the list of Critical Raw Materials (2017). |
| Niobium | Small Modular Reactors, magnetic fusion | |
| Titanium | Satellites, heat pumps, Small Modular Reactors | Titanium metal is a critical raw material that is essential for strategic civil aerospace and defence sectors.& |
| Beryllium | Satellites, laser fusion and magnetic fusion | |
| Fluorspar / Fluorine | Heat pumps and air conditioning systems | Fluorspar is listed as a Critical Raw Material (2017).& |
| Magnesium | Primarily lightweight construction and electronics applications within new technologies | Critical raw material; however, it plays a less prominent role in the eight new technologies than lithium, graphite, copper or rare earths. |
| Manganese | Stationary lithium-ion storage, photovoltaics, small modular reactors | |
| Vanadium | Only marginal in the eight new technologies, or used in specific alloys | Vanadium is mentioned in connection with redox flow storage.& |
Particularly relevant according to the DERA demand outlook for 2026
If one considers not only the formal EU classification but also the future supply burden posed by the eight new technologies are taken into account, the following raw materials in particular should be highlighted:
- Lithium – stationary lithium-ion storage.&
- Graphite – stationary lithium-ion storage.
- Heavy rare earths – heat pumps and air conditioning systems.
- Germanium – Satellites and digital technologies.
- Cobalt – Lithium-ion batteries.
- Copper – Added as a strategic raw material in 2023.
- Platinum group metals, in particular platinum and ruthenium – platinum for data centres and hydrogen electrolysis, ruthenium for data centres and autonomous driving.
