The human right to water and sanitation was recognized by the United Nations in 2010. Water is one of the Earth’s most important resources and is intended to be made available to all people in sufficient quantities across all regions. Climate change and future weather extremes—heatwaves, heavy rainfall, floods, or prolonged droughts—could jeopardize the achievement of this goal. Local water stress could in the future also lead to increased distribution conflicts in Germany, which is actually a water-rich country, for example between agriculture, industry, the energy and water sectors, and the protection of groundwater and ecosystems. Water-related conflicts that may emerge in Germany in the future are being studied within the ZUWAKO project.

Interactions between individual sectors and stakeholder groups are to be made transparent, and potential trade-offs in water use will be identified. The respective courses of action available to different actors are analyzed, taking into account the influence of possible weather extremes driven by climate change. Practitioners, including those from the water sector, are actively involved in the design, development, and evaluation of the modelling. With a workshop version of a web application, the conflict field of water will ultimately be made tangible for all participants. Illustrative conflict areas of particular relevance for Germany include: trade-offs in a river basin (Module A: Jülich Research Centre), irrigation conflicts (Module B: ZIRIUS), and water conflicts in large-scale projects (Module C: TU Bergakademie Freiberg).

Research questions

• How do future environmental conditions, such as climate change, affect future water conflicts in Germany?
• How do future strategies and decisions of different societal actors influence conflict situations?
• Which combinations of strategies and measures (policies) can intensify or mitigate future water conflicts?
• How can Cross-Impact Balance Analysis (CIB) in the form of participatory modelling and a serious game, be used to support actors in anticipating conflicts and developing strategies?

Modul C:

The operation and closure of open-pit mines are associated with significant impacts on water resources, including changes to groundwater systems and a lowering of the groundwater table (UBA 2017, Krupp 2020). In addition, so-called perpetual costs arise, which include water management measures as well as groundwater monitoring, the flooding of the remaining pit, and the construction of necessary infrastructure (see Agora Energiewende 2017). Mine operators are required to set aside provisions for such costs; otherwise, these would have to be covered by the state. This module focuses on the trade-off between large-scale projects (such as open-pit mining) and groundwater protection. These conflicts are typical of the (partly cross-border) and long-term side effects of interventions by heavy industry and large infrastructure projects in landscapes and ecosystems, affecting groundwater and ultimately secure drinking water supply. Cross-border water conflicts and conflicts over supply security are particularly common. The module, for example, works with the case of the “Turów mine”: the continuation of lignite mining in the Polish Turów mine has triggered a dispute between the neighbouring countries Poland, Germany, and the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic successfully sued Poland at the European Court of Justice, arguing that the mine causes a lowering of the groundwater table in the border region. On the German side, the town of Zittau also filed a complaint. Poland has already been ordered to pay daily fines. In addition to this ongoing conflict, the continued operation of the mine creates a future conflict between neighbouring countries, as the remaining pits will eventually be flooded. Due to the coupling of groundwater and surface water, this could affect water levels in adjacent rivers. Furthermore, climate change is expected to intensify the conflict through more frequent droughts and heatwaves.