Date of the Workshop: April 30 and 31, 2017

Workshop Program: schedule

Structure and Motivation:

The first CIB workshop is the first event in a series of three workshops in total. The objective of the workshops is the development of consistent and transparent qualitative and quantitative scenarios for the European electricity market. A further development of the CIB approach is intended to enable the evaluation of qualitative and quantitative aspects and their influences on the electricity market. The results of the workshops will be used in the subsequent stages of the project to generate comprehensive and consistent datasets for the modeling of the European electricity market.

The primary objective of the first workshop was the development of a set of qualitative and quantitative descriptors. For this purpose, the participants were provided in advance with a list of system-relevant elements for describing the European electricity market. This list was compiled through extensive literature research conducted by the work package 3 team. Subsequently, during the workshop, the experts were asked to provide a critical assessment of these interdisciplinary aspects in order to select the most important system elements. The workshop participants included both partners of the 4NEMO project and external partners.

Wir möchten den Teilnehmer/-innen des ersten CIB Workshops unseren Dank aussprechen:

Brief overview of results:

The shortlist of relevant descriptors was developed through extensive discussions among the experts during the workshop and through the evaluation of questionnaires. Using this list of descriptors in combination with additional parameters of the electricity models, a consistent picture of the future European electricity market is to be generated. An assessment of the strength and nature of the interactions between the identified descriptors will be the subject of the second workshop. Work on work package 3 is not yet completed.

Acknowledgements

For their support and extensive advice in the preparation of the first workshop, we would like to express our special thanks to:

• Stefan Vögele, Forschungszentrum Jülich
• Christoph Weissbart, ifo Institute
• Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Center for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies (ZIRIUS)

For the organization of the workshop, we would also like to thank:

• Media Center of TU Bergakademie Freiberg
• Ms. Krug, Secretariat of the Chair of General Economics, in particular Resource Economics

Date of the Workshop: October 12 and 13, 2017

Workshop Program: schedule

Structure and motivation:

Through the first workshop, the key elements for describing the future European electricity market in 2050 were identified. The list of these factors (descriptors) was developed through extensive discussions among the experts during the first workshop and through the evaluation of questionnaires. The identification and assessment of direct interactions among these descriptors was the subject of the second CIB workshop.

We would like to express our gratitude to the participants of the second CIB workshop:

Brief overview of results:

The central objective of the second workshop was the assessment and evaluation of direct interdependencies between the qualitative and quantitative factors defined in the previous step. In the second CIB workshop, the experts were asked to critically assess these interdependencies and their nature (see Figure 1).

In advance, the project team had identified 120 direct interactions between the descriptors. Within the second workshop, 77 (65%) of the 120 interactions were evaluated. The selection of descriptors to be addressed during the plenary and group discussions was carried out using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). In the context of the CIB method, this multi-criteria decision analysis tool enabled the prioritization of all descriptors. In this way, the workshop discussions could be focused on the most central descriptors.

Acknowledgements:

For their support and extensive advice in the preparation of the second workshop, as well as for their moderation during the workshop, we would like to express our special thanks:

• Dr. Stefan Vögele, Forschungszentrum Jülich

Furthermore, for the organization of the workshop, we would like to thank:

• Ms. Krug, Secretariat of the Chair of General Economics, esp. Resource Economics
• Media Centre of TU Bergakademie Freiberg

Date of the Workshop: April 26 and 27, 2018

Workshop Programme: schedule
 

Structure and Motivation

The third CIB workshop in Freiberg served for the final evaluation and discussion of the developed storylines. The results of the first two CIB workshops were compiled by the project team (Jülich Research Centre and TU Bergakademie Freiberg) and evaluated through the application of the Cross-Impact Balance analysis. Furthermore, approaches for implementing the respective scenario parameters into the models of the project partners were advanced.

We would like to express our gratitude to the participants of the third CIB workshop:"

Brief overview of the results:

The first part of the workshop focused on the final presentation and evaluation of the developed storylines. In doing so, the experts examined the storylines with regard to content consistency and potential logical errors.

The developed scenario space contained 26 scenarios, which were grouped into four clusters:

• Restauration of the EU
• Dash for Gas
• Green Prosperity
• Renaissance of the Nation State

A high degree of conceptual consistency is evident within the four groups (see Figure 1). A representative scenario was selected from each of these four clusters to develop a corresponding storyline, which was subsequently presented during the third workshop.

In addition to the presentation of the storylines, the implementation of the scenarios into the project partners' models was intensively discussed. This process focused primarily on the translation of the various descriptor variations.

Acknowledgements:

We would like to express our sincere gratitude for the support and extensive guidance provided during the preparation of the third workshop, as well as for the intensive collaboration during the final stages of the work package to:

• Dr. Wolfgang Habla, ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim
• Dr. Stefan Vögele, Forschungszentrum Jülich
• Dr. Sebastian Voigt, ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim

Furthermore, we would like to express our gratitude for the organizational support to:

• Frau Jutta Krug