4NEMO – Research Network for the Development of New Methods in Energy System Modeling
The 4NEMO project aims at an extended integration of economic and social dynamics and related uncertainties into energy system models. For this purpose, existing models will be developed further in order to allow for a better comparison between models. Moreover, integrated scenarios will be developed and used to conduct a model comparison exercise. Respective results will be used to show strengths, weaknesses and comparative advantages of the different models and to improve the transparency in energy system modeling.
The project is supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi).
Being involved in the project on different steps of the 4NEMO project, TU Bergakademie Freiberg mainly contributes to the Work Package 3.
Work package 3: Development of consistent socio-technical context scenarios for the European electricity market until 2050 (WP3)
Main focus of the 3rd Work package 3 is the development of socio-technical context scenarios. Consistent and transparent qualitative scenarios will be created by implementing a Cross-Impact-Balance (CIB) approach. CIB is widely used in the analysis of energy system transitions, on sustainability, innovation, health care and climate change, but this is the first application of the approach to the analysis of the European electricity market. Based on the socio-technical context scenarios developed with the help of the CIB the project team will identify and specify consistent datasets for the electricity market models. The datasets will include relevant information for the creation of quantitative scenarios with a focus on the European electricity system.
In a first step of the CIB analysis, key factors (descriptors) are extracted from literature. Further, we gather information from experts by using questionnaires and by extensive discussions at workshops. Beside quantitative factors, qualitative aspects, which influence the development of the electricity system and therefore the electricity market, are taken into consideration. Factors, as well as links between them, are discussed at the second interdisciplinary CIB workshop. To improve the connection between qualitative scenario generation and quantitative modeling, we aim to refine the CIB approach with respect to the number of factors, which can be taken into consideration and with focus on its use as a tool for the verification of scenarios carried out by quantitative models.
Research tasks within the Work Package 3:
• Identification of relevant factors (“descriptors”) that have a significant direct or indirect influence on the European electricity market. These are to be defined through extensive desk research and expert workshops.
• Assessment of the links existing between the defined factors (“descriptors”) via the Cross-Impact Matrix method.
• Identification of a set of possible socio-technical context scenarios for their further use within the electricity market modeling framework.
• Improvement of the existing Cross-Impact Balance Approach.
• Selection and preparation of socio-technical context scenarios.
Main milestones of the Work Package 3:
Identification and specification of the factors having direct and indirect influences on the future European electricity market and compilation of a "short list" of the influencing descriptors.
Identification of direct interdependences between possible states of descriptors based on experts' judgements.
Presentation and discussion of socio-technical context scenarios.
Concretization and finalizing of the outcomes of the WP3 within the WP4.
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)
ewi Energy Research & Scenarios
ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e. V.
Technische Universität München
Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
Project team at the TU Bergakademie Freiberg: